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Maintaining Optimism in the Face of Reality. Occasional observations on the state of the world, society, business and politics. Usually anchored by facts, always augmented by opinion.


Election Prediction via Media Spend  | e-mail post

Jay Cost posts some analysis on data from the Wisconsin Advertising Project, which breaks down the top 50 markets for television advertising activity for each candidate, their allies and party indpendent expenditures. [Data in PDF]

In addition to the comments I make in his post (signed as Barry), I suspect Florida is running artificially high in these results to focus on snowbirds who vote absentee. I would imagine a drop-off in advertising there, especially if Bush gains.

The net-net is that the media spend lines up pretty well with what states you would imagine to be genuine contests, and gives a sense of what states one candidate or the other is dropping from concern. And, not surprisingly if you've been looking at electoral vote projections based on the results from historically more accurate pollsters, it is shaping for a Bush win in the electoral vote space.

Also, don't believe the Star-Tribune Minnesota Poll out today until you can compare it to the next Mason-Dixon poll. (See my previous post on bias in Strib polls and the uncanny accuracy of Mason-Dixon)

e-mail post | Link Cosmos | [Permalink]  |  | Wednesday, October 13, 2004
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