Maintaining Optimism in the Face of Reality. Occasional observations on the state of the world, society, business and politics. Usually anchored by facts, always augmented by opinion.
||Arkansas only elects Southern Democrats.|
||Aspen and Vail might be liberal; Colorado is not.|
||With Jeb and an older, wiser electorate, Florida goes Bush.|
||4||Not even the Cheney Charm will put red dots in a blue ocean.|
||I was born and bred there, and so was the BC04 National Political Director, I have faith.|
||4||Bush I's home state, but not Bush II's.|
||17||Bush should forget the motor city.|
||My current home; I'm trusting Mason-Dixon and my gut; Kerry could easily get Nadered here.
||If Branson, MO doesn't make this a "red state," what would?|
||Money favors Bush 3:1, enough said.|
|New Hampshire (4)||
||4||It will be close, but Libertarians will "Nader" Bush.|
|New Jersey (15)||15||
||As Virgil said, "Fortune favors the bold." I'm defying all wisdom and logic, but I feel like terror threats will swing it for Bush.|
|New Mexico (5)||5||
||More New Mexicans speak Spanish than French.|
||20||It should be Bush's to win, but the court prohibition on voter challenges will let Mary Poppins' vote count.|
||7||California transplants bring it home for Kerry.|
||21||The city of brotherly love likes the John-John chemistry.|
||11||Kerry's love of windsurfing pays off in the Pacific states.|
||10||Madison and Milwaukee go to Kerry;Wisconsin's byzantine outstate road system means Bush supporters can't get the polls in time.|
|West Virginia (5)||5||
||Country roads, take Bush home.|
UPDATED: Federal courts have intervened to overturn the ruling of the Ohio courts, allowing election monitors in Ohio polling places, thereby prevent the likes of Mary Poppins voting. I'll stick with my prediction on New Jersey going for Bush, which could make this a landslide from an EV perspective. New prediction: Bush 311; Kerry 227.
First drop 15 for Bush and give them to Kerry, because only an insane person would suggest Bush will carry New Jersey.
New Baseline: 276 Bush, 262 Kerry
Best case for Bush: 306-232
Start with the baseline, plus:
- Republicans turn out strongly enough that even with Mary Poppins votes don't matter and Bush wins Ohio. (+20 Bush/-20 Kerry)
- Wake and bake for Madison NORML members means they miss the polls giving Wisconsin to Kerry. (+10 Bush/-10 Kerry)
- Bush carries Wisconsin and Ohio, however, (+30 Bush/-30 Kerry)
- Voters in Minnesota ask "What Would Wellstone Do?" and vote Kerry (-10 Bush/+10 Kerry)
Best Case for Kerry: Bush 266 to Kerry 272
If Kerry gets an Ohio, Wisconsin and Minnesota hat trick, and Bush doesn't have an extra pickup, it leaves Bush at 266 and everyone needs to start praying for Kerry's good health, because the only thing worse would be seeing John Edwards running the country.
e-mail post | Link Cosmos | [Permalink] | | Tuesday, November 02, 2004