Maintaining Optimism in the Face of Reality. Occasional observations on the state of the world, society, business and politics. Usually anchored by facts, always augmented by opinion.

A Bold Prediction: Bush 291; Kerry 247  | e-mail post

Here is my current prediction for the election outcome tomorrow. I am only covering states that have ever been considered in contest. States that have been a lock from the beginning start Bush with 191 electoral votes and Kerry with 149. From there, I break down the states. I could do a lot less interesting prediction (which will follow), but this one is more interesting, feels good, and was more fun to write:

Arkansas (6)6
Arkansas only elects Southern Democrats.
Colorado (9)9
Aspen and Vail might be liberal; Colorado is not.
Florida (27)27
With Jeb and an older, wiser electorate, Florida goes Bush.
Hawaii (4)
4Not even the Cheney Charm will put red dots in a blue ocean.
Iowa (7)7
I was born and bred there, and so was the BC04 National Political Director, I have faith.
Maine (4)
4Bush I's home state, but not Bush II's.
Michigan (17)
17Bush should forget the motor city.
Minnesota (10)10
My current home; I'm trusting Mason-Dixon and my gut; Kerry could easily get Nadered here.
Missouri (11)11
If Branson, MO doesn't make this a "red state," what would?
Nevada (5)5
Money favors Bush 3:1, enough said.
New Hampshire (4)
4It will be close, but Libertarians will "Nader" Bush.
New Jersey (15)15
As Virgil said, "Fortune favors the bold." I'm defying all wisdom and logic, but I feel like terror threats will swing it for Bush.
New Mexico (5)5
More New Mexicans speak Spanish than French.
Ohio (20)
20It should be Bush's to win, but the court prohibition on voter challenges will let Mary Poppins' vote count.
Oregon (7)
7California transplants bring it home for Kerry.
Pennsylvania (21)
21The city of brotherly love likes the John-John chemistry.
Washington (11)
11Kerry's love of windsurfing pays off in the Pacific states.
Wisconsin (10)
10Madison and Milwaukee go to Kerry;Wisconsin's byzantine outstate road system means Bush supporters can't get the polls in time.
West Virginia (5)5
Country roads, take Bush home.

UPDATED: Federal courts have intervened to overturn the ruling of the Ohio courts, allowing election monitors in Ohio polling places, thereby prevent the likes of Mary Poppins voting. I'll stick with my prediction on New Jersey going for Bush, which could make this a landslide from an EV perspective. New prediction: Bush 311; Kerry 227.

Conventional Predictions:

First drop 15 for Bush and give them to Kerry, because only an insane person would suggest Bush will carry New Jersey.

New Baseline: 276 Bush, 262 Kerry

Best case for Bush: 306-232

Start with the baseline, plus:
Conventional Wisdom Bush Win: 296-262

Best Case for Kerry: Bush 266 to Kerry 272

If Kerry gets an Ohio, Wisconsin and Minnesota hat trick, and Bush doesn't have an extra pickup, it leaves Bush at 266 and everyone needs to start praying for Kerry's good health, because the only thing worse would be seeing John Edwards running the country.

e-mail post | Link Cosmos | [Permalink]  |  | Tuesday, November 02, 2004
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