Maintaining Optimism in the Face of Reality. Occasional observations on the state of the world, society, business and politics. Usually anchored by facts, always augmented by opinion.

New Quinnipiac Polls - Odd Results?  | e-mail post

Quinnipiac's got new polls out today, based on calls from the 27th-31st. Frustratingly, no details. Even more frustrating, they have the Presidential race in New Jersey swinging from a 48-48 tie to a 48-43 Kerry lead over just one week. I am not sure how to interpret this at all, especially without any more detailed data. It should pleased Adele Stan. She's commented previously on the NJ race as well, and is pointing some her readers to my "New Jersey Could Let Us Get To Bed Early" post.

Adele kindly describes me as a "sane-sounding voice from the other side." Thank you, Adele. I can say the same thing about her as well, and would encourage those looking for some reading from the left of center to give her a read, she's on my blog roll as well. She's a legitimate journalist, having work published in magazines like Mother Jones and The New Republic, including a very comprehensive piece on the religious right.

I'll need to think about how to interpret the NJ results before I make my final outcome prediction later tonight or first thing tomorrow morning. For those who are curious how this lines up to the dates the surveys were conducted (which I wanted to check to see if there was any kind of weekend bias exhibited):
I might just chalk this up to a bad sample. The results seem counterintuitive because terrorism concerns have driven Bush's performance in NJ (see "What New Jersey is Saying (We're Safer With Bush/Cheney)").

The fact that Quinnipiac also has Bush up 8 in Florida (51-43) also seems to make me wonder if their random digit dialing just had a bad run. It does seem rather strange.

e-mail post | Link Cosmos | [Permalink]  |  | Monday, November 01, 2004
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